Spring Training 2016 Preview: Three Story-lines to Watch for

With pitchers and catchers officially set to report to Fenway South in just six days, anticipation of the baseball season is mounting. As per usual, many players have reported to camp early, but the real work has yet to start. Dave Dombrowski and the Boston Red Sox struck early and often this off-season, making the majority of their moves to improve the major league roster before the MLB Winter Meetings even took place. While that may have been exciting for the impatient members of Red Sox Nation, it also left a lot of time between off-season hope and the arrival of the baseball season. With the official beginning of the baseball season less than one week away, here are the top three story-lines you should be focused on this Spring Training down at Fort Myers.

  • No, I’M the Ace.

Last off-season, the majority of concern about the Red Sox from fans and baseball pundits alike was focused on the starting rotation. That concern proved to be appropriate over the course of the regular season, as the Boston Red Sox trotted out one of the worst starting rotations in all of baseball. Ben Cherington led many to believe that, despite not having thrown a pitch as a Red Sox, Rick Porcello was the ace of the future and deserved his lucrative contract. Porcello was identified early as the workhorse of the staff and was to lead the Red Sox, along with fellow ground ball pitchers Wade Miley and Justin Masterson, back to contention. However, though Cherington tried to convince the masses that Porcello was the next Jon Lester, the media and fans were not so sure. With questions swirling around Spring Training last year of who the true ace was, the aforementioned Miley cleverly designed five t-shirts that said “”he’s the ace.” That t-shirt was to personify the idea that Cherington and manager John Farrell tried to instill. That idea was that each of the five starters in the rotation (Porcello, Miley, Joe Kelly, Clay Buchholz, and Masterson) would be the “ace” of the staff on any given night. Unfortunately, that mentality is not conducive to establishing true leadership and subsequently a true ace. Now, fast forward to February 18, 2016, and there will be no ambiguity of who the ace of the staff is. Upon his hiring as president of baseball operations, Dombrowski promised of bringing in a true number one pitcher with electric stuff. That pitcher is David Price. With a true identified leader who has been at the top of his game for so long, David Price brings something that the Red Sox severely lacked last season: leadership and talent at the top of the rotation.

  • Position change? I got this.

Along with rebuilding the starting rotation, last off-season Cherington wanted to add more power bats to the lineup to protect aging slugger David Ortiz. To address that need, Cherington signed former Red Sox shortstop Hanley Ramirez as well as three time World Series third baseman Pablo Sandoval. There was only one issue with that, Ramirez and Sandoval played the same position (third base) and the Red Sox already had a young, potential all start shortstop named Xander Bogaerts. The solution was simple. Hanley Ramirez, known to be inflexible and below average in the field, was to change positions and man left field for the 2015 Red Sox. So, as instructed, Ramirez bulked up and came into Spring Training looking more like a WWE Superstar as opposed to an athletic left fielder, despite never playing the position before. Needless to say, Cherington’s master plan failed, and Hanley Ramirez played more like Red Sox legend Manny Ramirez in the field. With the emergence of Jackie Bradley Junior and the  hope that Rusney Castillo plays up to his potential, there is no longer a spot in the outfield for Hanley Ramirez. Another year, another position change: it is now 2016 and Dave Dombrowski and John Farrell are venturing down a familiar and dangerous path. Ramirez is now expected to switch positions again, this time from left field to first base. The expectation is that he will slim down in the offseason to his shortstop playing days, and learn how to play first base. Now, Ramirez is saying all of the right things (sort of) to this point. A few weeks back at Foxwoods Resort Casino for Red Sox Winter Weekend, Ramirez was telling reporters that he was excited to move back to the infield because it was “his house” and it should be “easy” to learn first base. As Spring Training fast approaches, it will be important to see just how easy a third position change will be for Ramirez.

  • Victory Lap

The 2016 Red Sox season will hopefully be marked by another worst to first turn around. One thing is for sure, however, and that is that David Ortiz will be making his final lap in what has been a Hall of Fame career. In years past, Spring Training has been highlighted by questions about just when Ortiz will call it quits on a legendary career. This year, however, there is no question. This will be the last time Ortiz will be walking into camp as a member of the Boston Red Sox roster. Expect smiles, hugs, laughs, and hopefully a few profanities. Spring Training baseball tends to be long and arduous, but Ortiz always gives the fans and media sound-bytes and headlines. One of the few things I remember from last Spring Training was Ortiz’ tirade on the new rules prohibiting hitters from leaving the batter’s box, and it was memorable because it was passionate and honest. Ortiz last Spring Training should be a fun one and I have one piece of advice for Red Sox fans: enjoy it. Spring Training baseball will never be the same without the man they call Big Papi.

The Impact of Chris Young

The Boston Red Sox made their second addition of the winter earlier this afternoon by adding right handed hitting outfielder Chris Young. Young was one of the first players Dave Dombrowski called when MLB free agency started. Initially, it was reported that Young was to sign with a team with the intention of becoming an every day outfielder. Dombrowski’s infatuation with the 32 year old center fielder began to raise questions about the future of the dynamic outfield trio that burst onto the scene last season.

The center of that speculation was Jackie Bradley Jr. Why, some thought, would Dombrowski trade away arguably the best defensive outfielder in baseball who finally started hitting major league pitching. Maybe the Red Sox would be selling high on him. Maybe Dombrowski thought JBJ’s offensive onslaught was an aberration. Maybe JBJ was safe and instead they would try to sell teams on Rusney Castillo’s vast potential. It now seems to me that the outfield combo of Betts, Bradley, and Castillo are staying right where they are and Chris Young will be nothing more than a fourth outfielder and insurance in case the youngsters regress.

Initially my knee-jerk reaction was that a trade was in the works to move JBJ to make room for Young. However, with Allen Craig in Pawtucket, as well as Alejandro de Aza and Shane Victorino gone, the Red Sox were in need of Major League outfield depth. Super utility man and All Star Brock Holt is too valuable to be seen as only a fourth outfielder. In signing Young, the Red Sox now have the flexibility to move Holt to the infield. Between Sandoval’s defensive struggles, Hanley’s third position change in as many years, and Pedroia’s mounting injuries, Holt needs to be available to play one of those three positions on a daily basis. Young, on the other hand, is good enough to be a starter, but now represents an area of strength for the Red Sox. It is inevitable that at some point the young outfielders will struggle. Now, instead of damaging their confidence and forcing them to play, John Farrell has an above average bench player at his disposal.

The Boston Red Sox major league roster is starting to take shape. Despite some rumblings that Hanley Ramirez was being shopped, high ranking Red Sox officials were adamant about endorsing him as their first basemen. With Chris Young in the fold, I believe they will roll with their potentially lethal BBC starting outfield with the assurance of a major league ready bat on the bench.

Dave Dombrowski told Jim Bowden of ESPN at the GM meetings that his three main priorities were to get an impact closer, a right handed 4th outfielder, and an ace. Priorities one and two have been addressed with ideal candidates, now all focus should be on acquiring the leader of your pitching staff.

David Ortiz: A Legendary Career

Earlier this afternoon Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports reported something that Red Sox Nation has been dreading for years: David Ortiz will be retiring at the conclusion of the 2016 season. David Ortiz, or David Arias at the time, began his professional baseball career in 1992 when he was signed by the Seattle Mariners. It wasn’t until 1997 he was given a chance to play in the big leagues when he was traded to the Minnesota Twins as a first baseman and designated hitter. He played four full seasons with the Twins, a time in which he hit only 58 of his current 503 home runs. Once becoming a free agent in January of 2003, it was clear that the Twins were ready to move on. That is when the Red Sox, unbeknownst to them, decided to sign one of the greatest players in their franchise’s history.

On June 1, 2003, Grady Little, the manager best known for letting Pedro pitch too long, changed the fortunes of the franchise when he decided to bench Jeremy Giambi for David Ortiz. The very next month, Ortiz hit eight homeruns followed by an 11 home run output in August. From there, a legend was born as he completed 2003 with 31 home runs, 101 RBI, while finishing fifth in the AL MVP voting. It was at this point when David Ortiz transformed into the man they call “Big Papi.”

While his baseball career may be ending soon, his legacy has already been cemented. Ortiz was an integral cog in the baseball playing machine that ended an 86 year cursed-laden championship draught. He was one half of arguably the most dominant three-four combos in baseball history, a member of the illustrious 500 home run club, a three time world champion, and most importantly, a key member of the Boston community. In the past, Ortiz has been criticized for his outspoken attitude; most notably disrupting a Terry Francona press conference to complain about his contract. He has been called a diva and accused by future Red Sox, David Price, of thinking that he is bigger than the game. Despite those accusations, it is time to fully appreciate what Ortiz has done for this franchise both on and off the diamond. On the field, Ortiz has played 13 of his 19 seasons in Boston. Only four times did Ortiz fail to eclipse the 30 home run mark. In 2007, he hit a Red Sox single season record of 52 home runs, while driving in 118 RBI. Those are just the regular season numbers. The postseason successes that Ortiz has experienced are the things I will tell my children’s children about. Off the field, Ortiz has given back to his community in many ways. After the Boston Marathon bombings, Ortiz helped to inspire the city to come together and recover as a community. In 2013, Ortiz finished third in the Boston Mayoral race, amassing over 500 write-in votes.

I, for one, have October 2, 2016 circled on my calendar. That may be the day that David Ortiz will step into the batter’s box of Fenway Park for the last time. My advice to Red Sox fans is this: appreciate David Ortiz throughout the 2016 campaign. Take the opportunity to appreciate the man we have taken for granted for over a decade. Some argue that clutch hitting does not exist. To that I say, nay. Clutch hitting is based off the eye test. And according to the eye test, David Ortiz is the greatest hitter in Red Sox history, and arguably the most important player in franchise history. In my opinion, he is a first ballot hall of famer, but that is a discussion for another time. The day David Ortiz officially retires will be a sad day in Red Sox history. But until that day, I will cherish every pimped-out home run, every opposing pitcher he embarrasses, every over exaggerated bat flip, and maybe, just maybe a fourth World Series Championship. That would be a storybook ending to a legendary baseball career.

Trade Partners and Potential Targets

Previously, I discussed some of the available starting pitchers on the free agent market. Now, I will be talking about some teams that may be willing to deal this offseason and who just may be on the trade market. Admittedly, it is much harder to forecast who may or may not be available in a trade, because sometimes the most obvious trade candidate stays put (see Giancarlo Stanton prior to his extension), and someone that was supposedly untouchable is traded days later (Josh Donaldson last offseason.) This post will not go much into what it would take to get certain players because it depends on the needs of each specific team as well as the statuses’ of their farm systems. Having said that, the Red Sox have deep pockets, great prospects, and a team president that is ready to deal, so trades should be expected this winter.

All stats used in this piece are courtesy of ESPN Stats and Info.

San Diego Padres

One team that appears to be primed for dealing is the San Diego Padres. After GM wunderkind A. J. Preller completed a total overhaul of his roster with moves for Matt Kemp, James Shields, Wil Myers, and Justin Upton last season, there was a level of excitement surrounding the Padres for the first time in a long time. However, just as the Red Sox, these moves all but backfired on Preller. Now, in need of yet another makeover, Preller may be ready to deal. There are a few names on the Padres roster to keep an eye on as a Red Sox fan.

Two players that were discussed as part of potential deadline deals were starting pitcher Tyson Ross and closer Craig Kimbrel. Tyson Ross is a pitcher better suited as a number two or number three starter. Ross will be 29 on opening day and is coming of a pretty successful season in arguably the toughest division in baseball. In 2014, Ross had a spectacular year, recording a 2.81 ERA despite only a 13-14 record. Last season, he regressed slightly but still put up respectable numbers. He finished 2015 with a 3.26 ERA, a 10-12 record, four innings shy of 200 innings pitched, and 212 strikeouts. Ross does not throw particularly hard, but does have a decent fastball averaging 93 mph. He won’t necessarily blow batters away, but he will mix his speeds and locations well to keep batters unbalanced. One concerning aspect of Ross’s game is that he walks a lot of batters. His walk numbers have increased each year since becoming a full time starter in 2013. Craig Kimbrel represents an entity that the Red Sox are severely lacking: a late inning reliever that throws heat. Kimbrel’s average fastball velocity is 96 MPH. He is also only 27 years old. The Red Sox have heavily relied on the arms of Junichi Tazawa and Koji Uehara and are in desperate need of a young arm for the back of the bullpen. Uehara has been a great closer for the Red Sox but is 41 years old and struggled all 2015 with injuries. Kimbrel would be an ideal anchor for the pen. He converted 39 of 43 save opportunities and struck out 87 batters in 59.1 innings.

Another name to monitor from a Red Sox stand point is James Shields. Last offseason, before Pablo Sandoval signed with the Red Sox, he was offered a very respectable contract from the San Diego Padres. The Red Sox were also in pursuit of James Shields before he decided to sign with the Padres. Both players have contracts that they did not live up to in their first season with their new clubs, and I would not be surprised if there was a deal to be made including Sandoval and Shields. The hope there would be that a change of scenery would be beneficial for two players that have had experience of success.

Cleveland Indians

The Indians surprised a lot of people for much of the 2015 campaign. They have one of the most well rounded starting pitching rotations in the major leagues, anchored by former Cy Young winner Corey Kluber. They also have some young pitching that may be available this offseason for a price. Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar are two players that are very much available this offseason and would immediately improve the Red Sox rotation. Neither pitchers had particular outstanding numbers, but they are both young and very talented. Carrasco is 28 years old and is a high volume strikeout pitcher. He had a respectable ERA of 3.63 and have over 200 strikeouts in 180 innings. He also pitched three complete games last season for the Indians and made 30 starts. Although his numbers are not as great as some of the other pitchers available this offseason, he does not have as much wear and tear on his arm. It is important to remember that last season was the first season of his career as a full time starter. In his major league career, he has only pitched 556 innings, which is a lot less than most 28 year old starting pitchers. The more intriguing name on this list for me is Danny Salazar. Salazar is a 25 year righty who won 14 games for Indians last year. He also had a WHIP of 1.13 which was good for eighth in the American League among qualifiers. Salazar also ranked seventh in the American League in strikeouts by starting pitchers. Most importantly, he has less than 350 innings pitched in the big leagues so he is a fresh arm that has proven that he can perform at this level.

Cincinnati Reds

There is one player on the Reds that should have all of Red Sox nation day dreaming of: Aroldis Chapman. Chapman is available this offseason. Like Kimbrel and Ross, the Red Sox were in discussions for a deal to bring the big left handed Cuban to Boston. Chapman has a lifetime ERA of 2.17 and over 500 strikeouts in 319 innings. Like Kimberl, Chapman is 27 years of age. What separates Chapman from the pack is the fact that he is a left hander and the fact that he can touch 100 MPH on a consistent basis. Aroldis Chapman is the Dellin Betances of the National League. Having a left handed power arm in the back of any bullpen is an enviable asset. I mention left handedness as an advantage because that helps create mismatches late in games when teams are trying to catch up on the score board. Chapman has also converted 69 of his last 74 saves dating back the last two seasons.

Oakland Athletics

Billy Beane is notorious for dealing budding stars before they are due for their big payday. Hopefully, Sonny Gray is another in a long line of young stars traded away. Admittedly, this seems very unlikely to happen. The A’s have already said that they could not foresee trading away Gray this offseason, but they said the same thing about Josh Donaldson last year, and he is probably going to be the 2015 AL MVP.  The A’s would need a king’s ransom in return to be compelled to even entertain the thought of trading Gray. He is the youngest starting pitcher who is even potentially available. In three years as a starter, his average ERA is 2.88. Gray is an established ace, has an affordable contract, and ranked in the top ten in the American League in many major pitching categories. The only question with Sonny Gray is what would you, as Red Sox fans be willing to give up. My best guess is that it would probably take a combination of Owens/E-Rod, Mookie/JBJ, Margot/Devers, and maybe even more.

Mets

The reigning National League Champions proved a lot to the baseball world last season. Most importantly, however, they proved that they have a lot of young pitching, and they are all good. The combination of Harvey, Thor, deGrom, Matz, and The Big Sexy (Bartolo Colon) was lethal for just about every team, including the Royals. Personally, I chalk three of the four losses in the World Series to the bullpen and the fact that the Royals never give up, never surrender, just like Tim Allen in Galaxy Quest. Having said all that, I think there are three names that may be available that would shore up the Red Sox rotation: Matt Harvey, Jon Niese, and Zack Wheeler. There was lot of drama surrounding Matt Harvey last season concerning his innings limit and the micromanaging agent, Scott Boras. I do not particular like Harvey’s attitude but his skills are undeniable. He is a bonafide ace, and due to the surplus of young pitching on the Mets, they may ultimately elect to trade him before extending him. Zack Wheeler is almost a complete unkown. He has had a big amount of success in the past, but he is coming off Tommy John’s surgery. It takes a full year for recovery time to come back from Tommy John’s but it also takes another year to return fully to previous performance. Luckily, many pitchers end up playing better than ever once fully recovered from the surgery. Wheeler is also only 25 years old, so the Mets may understandably be reluctant to trade him. Lastly, Jon Niese is someone I think the Red Sox should at least consider. Yes, he will be 30 on opening day, and yes he struggled at times last season. However, I believe he could be a strong number three starter. He also likely would not command as many prospects in any potential trades.

Free Agency: Starting Pitchers

All statistics used in this piece are courtesy of Baseball Reference and ESPN Stats and Info.

The number one priority for the Red Sox this offseason is rebuilding the top of the pitching rotation. Despite ranking fourth in the Majors in runs scored, the Red Sox still ended the season with the 12th worst record. Their team ERA was 4.31, good for the sixth worst ERA of all teams. They were also the sixth worst pitching staff in terms of opposing team batting average. The front office had so much faith in Rick Porcello that they signed him to a four year $82.5 million contract before he had a chance to toe the rubber at Fenway Park as a member of the Red Sox. Wade Miley was to be their new workhorse that would pitch his heart out and give you 200+ innings year in and year out. Joe Kelly was supposed to finally get his chance to step out of Wainwright and Wacha’s shadows and blow away batters with his fastball. Unfortunately, none of those things came to fruition. One positive aspect of the pitching rotation is that there is good depth for bottom of the rotation players. Eduardo Rodriguez had a successful rookie campaign and looks like he can be a good middle of the road starter in the big leagues. E-Rod, Kelly, Miley, Porcello, Buchholz (if not traded) and Henry Owens gives the Red Sox plenty of options for pitchers 3-5. Now, they just need to find one or two legitimate frontline starters. Luckily for Dave Dombrowski and the Red Sox front office, this year’s free agent class is a stacked deck, and it is loaded with aces. Below, I will be discussing the free agents available, why the Red Sox should sign them, why they should not sign them, and what I believe is the likelihood you will be seeing these names on Yawkey Way this year.

Tier 1:

David Price LHP

2015 Statistics: 2.45 ERA, 18-5, 225 SO, 1.08 WHIP

Career Statistics: 3.09 ERA, 104-56, 1372 SO, 1.13 WHIP

Why the Red Sox should sign Price: In 11 career starts at Fenway Park, Price is 6-1 with a 1.95 ERA, two complete games, and a sub one WHIP. Since 2010 Price has pitched at least 200 innings in all but one year and he has had 30+ starts in every year since 2010 but one. Price also has an impressive repertoire of pitches including a four seamer averaging at 94.7 mph, an above average sinker, a cutter that is tough on righties, which is important for a left handed pitcher, and impressive off-speed pitches. He mixes up his speeds well while commanding the strike zone.

Why the Red Sox should not sign Price: The New York Yankees have owned David Price over his career. In 30 career starts against the Yankees, Price has a 4.04 ERA, as well as a .253 opponent’s batting average. Not only does Price struggle against the Yankees, his postseason splits are very underwhelming. In 14 games in the postseason, Price has a career 5.12 ERA and is 2-7. His struggles in the postseason are very real leading some to question his ability to get better in October as he ages.

Likelihood of the Red Sox signing Price: As likely as Jonny Gomes taking credit for the Royals World Series victory. Price does struggle in the postseason, but his regular season numbers should not be ignored by a team seeking an ace to stabilize a rotation.

Zack Greinke RHP

2015 Statistics: 1.66 ERA, 19-3, 200 SO, 0.84 WHIP

Career Statistics: 3.35 ERA, 142-93, 1887 SO, 1.18 WHIP

Why the Red Sox should sign Greinke: Zack Greinke had by far the most dominant year of his career last year. In the month of July, he allowed only four runs total, equaling an ERA of 0.95. Greinke would immediately become the best starting pitcher on the Red Sox.

Why the Red Sox should not sign Greinke: First and foremost, Greinke’s age all but guarantees that the Red Sox will not want to sign him to the five year plus contract that he seeks. After all, he did just opt out of a respectable three year $72 million dollar deal. If the Sox could get him on his remaining Dodgers contract, they would be all in. But being 32 and looking for a long term deal, he does not seem to fit exactly what the Red Sox want. Greinke’s struggles with depression and anxiety are well documented. He was quoted as saying he would not want to pitch in a market like New York, and the only market harder to pitch in than New York is Boston. I am aware that Los Angeles is a big market financially, but the scrutiny that comes with being an LA Dodger is nothing compared to the scrutiny that comes with being a Red Sox, just ask Adrian Gonzalez. I know, buddy, all of those night games are tough. Lastly, I do not think Greinke would adjust well going back to the American League. He is a rare breed, a pitcher that likes to hit, and going back to the American League would eliminate that opportunity.

Likelihood of the Red Sox signing Greinke: As likely as Tom Brady setting Ted Wells up with Giselle’s twin sister.

Johnny Cueto RHP

2015 Statistics: 3.44 ERA, 11-13, 176 SO, 1.13 WHIP

Career Statistics: 3.30 ERA, 96-70 ERA, 1.18

Why the Red Sox should sign Cueto: Cueto is a work horse. He has pitched at least 200 innings each of the last three seasons. He was one of the major differences between the Royals winning the World Series this past season compared to them losing in the World Series the year before. He did struggle in the rounds leading up to the World Series, but when it counted most he shut down a red hot Mets team when it mattered most in what happened to be the Royals most lopsided win of the series.

Why the Red Sox should not sign Cueto: He has played in the National League for the majority of his career. In his 13 games as an American League pitcher, he had a forgettable 4.76 ERA in the regular season as a member of the Royals. During that span, his WHIP was the highest it had ever been for his career. Also, despite having that complete game in the World Series, his lifetime postseason ERA is over five. Along with some of those alarming numbers, Cueto has also been experiencing elbow problems and the way his delivery is, it is projected only to get worse over time. He is not 30 yet, but there are injury concerns and his weight is also seen as a potential issue down the road.

Likelihood of the Red Sox signing Cueto: More probably than not. But less probable than them signing Price.

Who do I want from tier 1: David Price. Out of the three names discussed above, Price is the closest thing to a known commodity. He has pitched in the American League his entire career with a good amount of success.

Tier 2:

Jordan Zimmermann RHP

2015 Statistics: 3.66 ERA, 13-10, 164 SO, 1.20 WHIP

Career Statistics: 3.32 ERA, 70-50, 903 SO, 1.16 WHIP

Why the Red Sox should sign Zimmermann: He is a high volume strike out pitcher that is not afraid to pound the zone with his fastball. He is stubborn and will go back to his best pitch time and time again. He pitches to contact to an extent, but he throws hard enough that most of the time he will generate swing and misses. Another reason he would be a good fit in Boston is that he does not allow home runs. In his seven year career, he has averaged less than fifteen home runs allowed per year. He also does not walk a lot of guys.

Why the Red Sox should not sign Zimmermann: Like Cueto, Zimmermann is a lifelong National League pitcher that has played in a relatively small market his entire career. He is a very proud player and has difficulty with being taken out of games. He is also coming off the worst year of his career since his rookie campaign, which is never a good sign for a player in a contract year.

Likelihood of the Red Sox signing Zimmermann: I could see it happening only if they first find an ace. Zimmermann has the ability to be one of the better pitchers on a staff and the mentality of an ace, but his “stuff” is not quite there to be “the guy.”

Jeff Samardzija RHP

2015 Statistics: 4.96 ERA, 11-13, 163 SO, 1.29 WHIP

Career Statistics: 4.09 ERA, 47-61, 901 SO, 1.28 WHIP

Why the Red Sox should sign Samardzija: They shouldn’t. Just because they shouldn’t doesn’t mean they won’t consider it. They may consider him because he represents a player that will likely command the least expensive contract for the guys available.

Why the Red Sox should not sign Samrdzija: Just like Zimmermann, he is coming off his worst season since becoming a full time starter. Jeff Samardzija and Chris Sale were supposed to be tandem that were to take Chicago to the top. Unfortunately, Samardzija did not hold up his end of the bargain.

Likelihood of the Red Sox signing Samardzija: It is only likely if they are unable to get any other free agent target. I see Samardzija as a last resort type signing.

Yovani Gallardo RHP

2015 Statistics: 3.42 ERA, 13-11, 121 SO, 1.42 WHIP

Career Statistics: 3.66 ERA, 102-75, 1347 SO, WHIP

Why the Red Sox should sign Gallardo: Firstly, he has one the best names in baseball, and he happens to be a pretty underrated pitcher. Gallardo is currently 29 years old, but will be 30 by the time the season starts. Like Samardzija, I do not expect Gallardo to command as lucrative a salary that would impede teams from making other moves. Also, up until last year he had pitched in the National League, however, unlike others before him, he had his best season of his career in his first full year in the American League. He started 33 games last year for the Texas Rangers and was a big reason for their late season surge. Note that Yu Darvish was down for most of last year and Gallardo took on the role as the ace of the staff. He would be a good fit as a number two or three starter depending on how the Red Sox view him.

Why the Red Sox should not sign Gallardo: He walks a ton of batters. Unlike Zimmermann, he nibbles at the corners of the strike zone and relies on his off speed stuff to get him out of trouble. His strikeout numbers are also lower than you would like. Especially for a team like the Red Sox who need more strikeout pitchers. They have enough guys that will give up singles.

Likelihood that the Red Sox will sign Gallardo: I think it is pretty unlikely at this point. But I think he is an under the radar type pitcher that would have an opportunity to make a real impact as a number two starter.

Who do I want from tier 2: To be honest, I would prefer the Red Sox to add an ace both through free agency and a trade. However, if I had to take one of these three pitchers from tier 2, I would want Jordan Zimmermann. It is concerning that he floundered last year. However, it may have been due to a toxic clubhouse in Washington last season. Zimmermann has the right attitude to play in Boston and having a reliable strikeout pitcher that throws some heat.

Thanks for reading, my next post will dive into the trade market for starting pitchers.

Boston Red Sox Offseason Preview

On October 30, 2013, the Boston Red Sox and Ben Cherington were kings of the baseball world. Not only were they crowned World Series Champions for the third time in a decade, they also set a new precedent in team building. After a tumultuous 2012 campaign, Ben Cherington and Red Sox ownership turned to a new model, a model in which chemistry and analytics took over as the new championship mold. Under-the-radar signings such as Jonny Gomes, Shane Victorino, and David Ross were seen as a way to rebuild the idea of clubhouse culture. 2013 was a miracle. Not to say it was a fluke, but the stars aligned. The platoon left field of Gomes and Nava produced better than anybody had hoped. Shane Victorino had a career year. David Ross took over catching duties in October to become the wily veteran that handled a pitching staff like no other since Jason Varitek. The 2013 played hard, had great chemistry with each other, and above all else, won games. The narrative changed from successful teams are built with stars (i.e., the “greatest team of all time” of 2011) to the whole is greater than the sum of its parts. With hard workers and good chemistry, anything is possible. Funny thing about chemistry, though, it only matters if you are winning.

Fast forward to the present. Everyone knows that the 2014 Boston Red Sox went from worst to first back to worst. Last winter was supposed to be a time of restoration. Maybe the team would not win the World Series. But with the additions of the two biggest bats on the market, the offense was supposed to carry the pedestrian pitching staff through October. Well, as it turns out, the two biggest bats on the market became the two biggest flop signings of the offseason. After back to back disappointing years following a world championship, the question is now this, how do the Boston Red Sox construct a team building model that yields consistent success. And consistent success does not mean winning the World Series every year. See the New England Patriots for example. Prior to Super Bowl XLIX, the Patriots had a ten year championship drought, and despite that drought, they were still seen as a model franchise.

Believe it or not, the first major addition to building a consistent winner has already happened; the hiring of Dave Dombrowski. Dombrowski has proven time and time again that he is not afraid to spend money to improve a teamand he is not afraid to make a deal, even if it means trading promising young talent. Dombrowski knows what it takes to retool this team both for success next season as well as for the foreseeable future. That being said, here are the priorities (in order) of the offseason that Dombrowski should focus on to build the next great Red Sox team.

  1. Rebuild the starting pitching rotation
  2. Revamp the bullpen with power arms
  3. Trade Hanley Ramirez by any means necessary
  4. Identify your first basemen of the future
  5. Finalize the outfield

I will be discussing each of these priorities in detail in upcoming posts. Stay tuned,